Abel Stakes

Railroad Weekly March 2, 2026

Inside This Issue

· Abel Stakes: New Berkshire Chief Says BN’s Profits Must Improve

· Greg to Differ: Unlike UP, Abel Not Interested in Merging

· Container Gainer: Long Beach Port Aims to 2x Volumes by 2050

· Coal, a Growth Opportunity? Sounds Surreal, But Could Be Real

· Shortline Combine: Consolidation Ensues in First/Last Mile

· Gas Impasse: Ammonia Maker Hopes to Lower Rail Shipping Costs

· Mideast Blows Up, Oil Goes Up: Iran Attacks Lift Prices

· Artificial Irrelevance? How Many Jobs Will AI Eliminate… or Create?

Track Talk

“Berkshire has been clear that it is not interested in acquiring one of the other Class I railroads, since the current economics would not work in our shareholders’ favor.”

-Berkshire Hathaway CEO Greg Abel

The Latest

· Berkshire Hathaway reported its Q4 and full-year 2025 results last week, which included numbers for BNSF. As the Scoreboard graphics below make clear, BN’s operating ratios worsened y/y in Q4—but not much. And considering the weak demand conditions late last year, that’s a victory of sorts. Indeed, as you’ll read in more detail below, the railroad achieved cost efficiencies that helped offset its revenue weakness. For all of 2025, meanwhile, BNSF’s operating ratios improved, and by more than any of its Class I rivals except CPKC, which benefitted from easier y/y comparisons (recall the labor unrest it faced in 2024). A reason to celebrate? No. Berkshire’s new CEO Greg Abel made clear that BNSF’s margin gap with rivals needs to be addressed. But he also said buying another railroad is not the answer.

· Tariff talk has quieted a bit. But a new military operation in Iran introduces some new economic uncertainties, including implications for the price of oil. As the Market Indicator chart below shows, oil prices are up 11% in just the past two weeks, in anticipation of this weekend’s action. In the meantime, AI’s future impact on the economy remains a hot topic (see Economy section below). One concern is the large